中国经济升温 全球企业取暖英文稿

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Global Enterprises Parched by the Heat of China’s Economy
By VIVIAN ZHOU and CHUHONG FANG
Five months ago, Keith Nosbusch, the CEO of Rockwell Automation, began to note the changes in China’s economy. This world’s second largest economy had slowed down to a record low in the second quarter of the year, but by the end of the third quarter, the economy has shown strong signs of recovery.
While economists were debating about their bearish and bullish views on China’s future economic growth, for an American businessman like Keith Nosbusch, his business has already provided the answer.
‘Rockwell’s profits in the last quarter have exceeded analysts’ expectations. The sales in China are expected to rise further in the next year.’ Keith Nosbusch said. He estimated optimistically that China’s economic growth would continue into 2014 to say the least.
In the past six months, the international expectations on the economy of China have gone through a roller coaster ride. In June and July of this year, ‘China bears’ almost became the analysts’ most favourite catchword. International Monetary Fund, Citibank, Credit Suisse Bank and a number of other institutions lowered their economic growth forecast figures. Morgan Stanley even issued a scenario forecast of a ‘Super bear’ of the Chinese economy. It predicted that China’s economic growth would fall to 5.5% at the end of 2013, and there might be the further risk of a “hard landing”.
However today, six months later, China’s economy has begun to rebound. In the third quarter of this year China’s GDP achieved a year-on-year growth of 7.8%. In addition, export trade, social electricity consumption, volume of freight traffic, industrial added value, PPI index and other indicators all pointed towards a shining performance. Many international research agencies began to take on their optimistic attitudes again towards China's economic structure. As Lu Ting, the economist at the Finance Management Department of Merrill Lynch commented: ‘This is a nice rebound.’
An article written by Li Keqiang recently published in the British "Financial Times" said: "China has always been and will continue to firmly support the European integration process. A united, stable and prosperous Europe is in the best interests of the world, and that also includes China. On the basis of mutual respect for each other, China, together with Central and Eastern European countries will continue their mutually beneficial economic and trade cooperations. It will not only bring benefits to the countries concerned, but also bring better prospects for the development of China-EU relations. It is a three-way win-win thing. "
Many analysts at home and abroad attributed China’s economic rebound to the Chinese government’s key act of ‘maintaining steady growth, adjusting economic structure and deepening reforms’. Chinese Premier Lee Keqiang, who is attending the Central and Eastern European Economic Forum, said shortly before in a domestic public address that in spite of the pressure of economic downturn, the current Chinese government was committed to carrying out policies to oversee that there would be no enlarged deficits, no over issuance of currency, nor short-term investments to stimulate the economic growth, and the government had been exploring an “innovative approach of macro-control” in order to solve the problems.
This meant that China has not used the traditional means of macro-control of leveraging quantitative easing monetary levers, but has turned to “deepening reforms” to fuel its economic development. Public statistic showed that since Chinese Premier Lee Keqiang came to office in March 2013, the Chinese Government, under the leadership of the new premier, has historically carried out a series of policies to “decentralize” the administrative power of the State Council. 334 government approvals have been either abolished or delegated to lower administrative levels in the hope of releasing the market's vitality.
Statistics from various sources showed that while the economic statistics of the emerging economies generally declined, China’s economy began to show a sign of potential acceleration after a period of steady growth. Research institutions began to raise their expectations for China’s further growth, and International capital also showed growing interests in China.
Catherine Raw, Portfolio Manager at Commodities Strategies Fund of Blackrock, said that some related doubts of China’s economic “hard landing” have now proved to be superfluous. Gary Dugan, the Chief Investment Officer of Asia and Middle East Department, Coutts & Co., Ltd (private bank) revealed that many organisations are actively buying Chinese stock, as the published positive economic statistics have relieved some of the worries about the decline of China's economic growth.
The same optimistic views are shared by enterprises that focus on real economy, including Keith Nosbusch’s Rockwell. During a media interview Keith said that the general improvement of the global economy would boost China’s export trade and would bring in further economic growth.
He further said: “The demands from China’s car industry, exports and energy industry will continue to be good news for the manufacturers globally. A rebound could be expected next year.”
Some media commented on this: Global enterprises got parched by the heat of China’s economy.

中国经济升温  全球企业取暖
中国经济升温  全球企业取暖

5个月前，罗克韦尔自动化的首席执行官凯斯?诺斯布什（Keith Nosbusch）开始留意中国经济的变化。这个全球第二大经济体的增速曾在今年第二季度跌至近年来新低，但到第三季度末很快便出现回暖迹象。
当经济学家还在为看好或看空未来中国经济争论不休时，对诺斯布什这样的美国商人来说，他的生意已经说明了一切。
“罗克韦尔上季度的利润已经超出了分析师的预期，明年在中国的销售预计还会增长。”诺斯布什说。他同时乐观地估计，中国经济增长的动能至少能持续到2014年。
过去半年时间，国际经济人士对中国经济的预期如同过山车一般经历了剧烈的翻转。六七月间，“看空中国”几乎成了分析人士最钟爱的流行语。国际货币基金组织、花旗银行、瑞信银行等多家机构纷纷下调对中国经济增长的预期，摩根斯坦利甚至发布了一个“超级熊市”的情景预测，认为中国经济存在“硬着陆”的风险。
然而半年后的今天，中国经济已经开始企稳回升。今年三季度，中国的GDP同比增长7.8%。此外，出口贸易、社会用电量、货运量、工业增加值、PPI指数等指标均表现不俗。许多国际研究结构开始重新对中国经济表现出乐观态度，美国银行美林金融管理部经济学家陆挺评论称：“这是一个漂亮的反弹。”
日前在英国《金融时报》上发表文章称：“中国始终并将继续坚定支持欧洲一体化进程，一个团结、稳定、繁荣的欧洲符合世界利益，也符合中国的利益。在相互尊重的基础上，中国与中东欧国家开展互利互惠的经贸合作，既对中东欧有利，对中国有利，也会为中欧关系发展带来更美好的前景，是一件三方共赢的好事。”
    国内外许多分析人士将中国经济回暖归因于中国政府“稳增长、调结构、促改革”之举的通力作用。正在参加中东欧经贸论坛的中国总理此前在国内的一份公开讲话中说，面对经济下行压力，新一届中国政府“保持定力，稳定政策”，坚持不扩大赤字，不超增发货币，不用短期政策性投资刺激经济增长，而是力图寻找一种“创新的宏观调控思路”。
这意味着中国并未用量化宽松撬动货币杠杆的传统宏观调控方式，转而把“深化改革”作为经济发展持续动力的来源。公开资料显示，今年3月就任中国总理以来，所领导的中国政府用前所未有的力度“简政放权”，先后取消、下放334项行政审批等事项，以此激发释放市场活力。
多种数据表明，当新兴经济体的经济数据普遍下滑之时，中国经济开始出现“稳中向好”的态势。研究机构不断开始提升对中国经济增速的预期，国际资本也对中国表现出越来越浓厚的兴趣。
贝莱德旗下大宗商品策略基金(Commodities Strategies Fund)投资组合经理凯瑟琳?罗（Catherine Raw）说，有关中国经济“硬着陆”的担忧已经消退。私人银行Coutts & Co. Ltd.亚洲和中东首席投资主管盖瑞?杜根（Gary Dugan）透露，很多机构正在中国股市积极建仓，因为经济指标的向好也缓解了中国经济增长率下降的忧虑。
同样乐观的还有聚焦实体经济的企业，包括罗克韦尔的诺斯布什。他在接受媒体采访时表示，全球经济整体好转将提振中国出口贸易，从而推动经济进一步增长。
但他同时表示：“来自中国汽车、出口以及能源行业的需求，将会继续推动全球制造业在明年反弹。”
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