低估非常普遍危害的发生频率和高估非常稀少危害的发生频率。

一沙一叶

The heuristic of availability relates to the fact that people tend to judge the likelihood of an event in terms of how easily they can recall (or imagine) examples of that event. A person's judgment concerning an event (in terms of its probability of occurrence and its severity) may therefore be influencedby how that person imagines or recalls similar scenarios (6,7).This may lead to a systematic bias andother errors in judgment. Research has shown that people tend to underestimate the frequency of very common hazards and overestimate the frequency of very rare hazards (6 8).

可用性启发式与以下事实有关，人们倾向于根据其能记得（或想象）该事件的例子的容易程度来判断事件发生的可能性。一个人关于某个事件的判断（以事件发生的可能性和严重程度来计）可能会受到该人是如何想象或回忆类似情景的影响.这样可能会导致判断的系统偏见和其他错误。研究表明人类倾向于低估非常普遍危害的发生频率和高估非常稀少危害的发生频率。

The heuristic of representativeness is related to a person's probability judgment being influenced by their "expecting in the small behavior that which one knows exists in the large." In this instance one can pay more attention to specific details, while ignoring or paying insufficient attention to important probability-related information that is relevant to the problem (8).

启发式的典型代表与被影响的人的概率判断有关，如他们“预计某种小概率行为被认为大概率行为。”在这种情况，人类就会在特殊的细节上花费过多的精力，而会忽略或太少关注与问题相关的有重大可能性的信息。

描红的如何理解啊？  

幻影

期望某种小概率行为，而实际公认是大概率行为。

yuansoul

掩耳盗铃的概率期望会害死自己

tsingsea

yuansoul 发表于 2014-8-25 16:23
掩耳盗铃的概率期望会害死自己

也有害死别人的

yuansoul

tsingsea 发表于 2014-8-25 17:20
也有害死别人的

大家好才是真的好，欧耶

lumang

过于关注全局中其所知道的小问题